● Britain’s “uni or bust” system fuelling youth worklessness crisis
● Up to 40,000 kids behind at reading in Year 6 set to be NEET for 12 months or more
● UK NEET rate treble that of the Netherlands while debt-free higher apprentices now out-earn their university graduate peers
Britain’s NEETs crisis is being fuelled by an education system failing to equip youngsters for the world of work, according to new analysis.
The findings by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) will be presented to former Labour cabinet minister Alan Milburn at an event on Monday to discuss how best to help young people not in education, employment or training (NEET).
The CSJ found that too many children are falling behind with a system skewed in favour of university education and a further education sector that still struggles to deliver.
There are now over 100,000 young people aged 21 on Universal Credit and out of work. This translates to almost four children in every Year 6 classroom ending up on out of work benefits – up from an average of three over the last five years.
The think tank warns that those who fall behind at primary school face landing on a “conveyor belt” to worklessness.
In the 2024/25 academic year, one in five Year 6 pupils did not meet the expected reading standard, with the CSJ estimating that almost 40,000 of these children are expected to spend at least 12 months continuously NEET in their early adult life.
By the time of their GCSE exams, 96 per cent of high attainers in primary school were found to pass English and Maths compared to 20 per cent of low attainers – highlighting the need for earlier interventions to cut off the NEET pipeline.
This comes alongside recent record numbers in the proportion of children who are severely absent, and in the number of primary school children permanently excluded.
Persistent absenteeism is associated with a 3.9 times greater risk of being NEET at age 16 to 18 and a 6.3 times greater risk of being persistently NEET.
Today’s challenges threaten the improvements made to the education system over the last fifteen years. Department for Education figures show that in 2024/25, 73 per cent of Year 11s passed their English and Maths GCSE, compared to just 52 per cent in 2010/11, while England’s children have shot up international rankings.
However, cracks are now showing and the CSJ criticises the UK’s “uni or bust” philosophy. After finishing 16-18 education, 38 per cent of young people go into university, and just 7 per cent go into apprenticeships.
This has devalued university education with England now leading the OECD in “overqualification”.
CSJ analysis revealed earlier in the year that the average graduate earns over £5,000 a year less than the average higher level (L4) apprentice five years after qualifying, rising to over £10,000 less for the bottom 25 per cent of graduates.
At the same time, the FE sector has not been adequately supported. For example, FE sector salaries are 20 per cent lower than secondary school teacher salaries (a difference of around £10,000), having declined in real terms by almost 20 per cent since 2011.
Pupils leaving FE colleges are over twice as likely to end up not in work, education or training than peers leaving sixth form colleges, according to the CSJ.
One recent poll found over half of employers do not believe that young people making the transition from education are well prepared for the world of work.
The CSJ argues that this has all contributed to the ongoing NEET crisis in the UK. There are now over one million 16-to-24-year-olds in this position, and six in ten of them have never had a job.
The Milburn review found that around 13 per cent of UK 16-to-24-year-olds are NEET, compared to 8 per cent in Germany and under 4 per cent in the Netherlands.
It’s time to jam the conveyor belt sending young people straight from school onto out of work benefits. No child should be doomed to a life on the margins.
‘That means ending the obsession with university, expanding technical education like we see in the Netherlands, and rewiring the incentives across the education system to drive up employment outcomes for school-leavers.
‘While the CSJ has published extensively on the welfare, immigration and tax drivers of the NEETs crisis, today’s analysis shines a spotlight on the role of the education system as Alan Milburn prepares the next report in his review.
Methodology
Official data from DWP Stat-Xplore shows that, in the latest data (February 2026), there were 101,542 people aged 21 currently on Universal Credit and out of work in Great Britain. This accounts for 12.72 per cent of the total population of 798,186 21-year-olds, according to latest ONS population figures for Great Britain. This proportion (3.51) rounds to 4 children in the average 27.6 child Key Stage 2 classroom.
Research from the National Centre for Social Research shows that while just 9 per cent of pupils who meet the expected standard in reading in KS2 become NEET for 12 consecutive months, this rose to 30 per cent among those who do not meet the expected standard. In 2024/25, of 652,637 assessed in reading, 130,697 children did not meet the expected standard in KS2, taking 30 per cent of these children suggests that an estimated 39,209 risk becoming NEET for consecutive 12 months at some point aged 16-24. Had they met the expected standard, we correspondingly estimate that 9 per cent – 11,763, or 27,446 fewer – would have gone on to become NEET.
Official data from the DfE shows that 95.6 per cent of those with “all high prior attainment” from KS2 achieved grade 4 or above in both GCSE English and Maths in the most recent data (2023/24), compared to 19.8 per cent of those with “all low prior attainment” from KS2. This breakdown is not available for the 2024/25 GCSE cohort, whose KS2 assessments were cancelled in 2020/21 due to the pandemic.
CSJ analysis of DfE education outcomes data found that, in tax year 2022/23, median earnings for higher level (L4) apprentices five years after qualifying aged 19 to 24 were £37,300, compared with £32,100 for UK-domiciled first degree graduates who began their course before age 21, five years after graduation, and £24,800 for the bottom quartile of graduates.