- Public to witness more funerals than christenings as deaths expected to overtake births in England and Wales from July 2026 onwards
- Britain entering a new demographic era as the ONS projects around 450,000 more deaths than births over the next decade
- Birthrate collapse driving soaring government spending while public debt forecast to hit 270 per cent of GDP to pay for ageing population
- CSJ calls on ministers to “put family first” as 600,000 women aged 16 to 45 set to “miss out” on motherhood despite dreams of having children
The start of July has marked “Death Day” as a leading think tank warns that the number of babies born in England and Wales every year will now be outpaced by deaths.
Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) analysis of the latest population projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggests that the threshold at which deaths will start to outnumber births in England and Wales was crossed on July 1st.
In its latest 2024-based population projections, ONS figures show deaths projected to exceed births in England and Wales from July 2026 onwards, with 2025/26 being the last year in which births were slightly higher.
The ONS expect 2026/27 to see 584,000 babies born compared to 588,000 deaths, CSJ analysis of the figures revealed.
The reversal is almost unprecedented, having only occurred in England and Wales fifty years ago in 1976, when the birth rate was much higher than it is today (1.71 vs 1.39 respectively in England and Wales).
While birth and death rates vary across the year – deaths spike in the winter and births tend to condense over the summer – the think tank has identified “Death Day” as the point in the year where deaths start to outnumber births in ONS projections for England and Wales.
Across all of Britain, the ONS also expects current trends to extend well into the 2030s, projecting around 450,000 more deaths than births over the ten years between mid-2024 and mid-2034.
The CSJ warns that while the nation begins a new demographic era, politicians are asleep at the wheel as the shift accelerates concerning trends in the economy, public services and the nation’s ability to pay the bills.
The think tank also highlights the “tragedy of missing parents” – those dreaming of starting a family and yet unable to do so because of the rising the costs of having children, decline in marriage and scant affordable housing.
The CSJ’s Baby Bust report found that around three million women aged 16 to 45 today are projected not to have children under current trends, translating to 600,000 fewer mothers than if Britain had maintained the fertility patterns of their grandparents’ generation.
This is despite demographers consistently finding that the two-child family remains the aspiration in Britain.
Meanwhile, on the Department for Education’s central projection, England will have approximately 300,000 fewer nursery and primary school pupils by 2030 – equivalent to around 1,150 average-sized nurseries and primary schools.
This suggests seven per cent of nurseries and primary schools face closure within a decade, with approximately 34,000 nursery and primary school jobs at risk.
The fiscal consequences of demographic change are enormous. The CSJ found that if the government attempted to maintain today’s ratio of workers to pensioners, the state pension age would need to rise over the coming decades such that children aged 8 and under today would not retire until they are 75.
The Office for Budget Responsibility has warned that, on current trends, UK public debt could rise to over 270 per cent of GDP by the 2070s as ageing pushes up spending on pensions, health and social care.
The CSJ is calling on Government to support family formation, helping more people fulfil their aspirations of becoming parents rather than simply managing the consequences of birth rate decline:
- Introduce measures that make marriage and parenthood easier for young couples, such as frontloading parental support to the early years, scrapping wedding admin fees and reforming the tax system to reflect the cost of raising children.
- Place greater value motherhood across society and culture, recognising it as an aspiration fundamental to the future of society and sustainability of the public finances.
- End “Baby Boomer” politics, shifting the intergenerational transfer from young to old by scrapping the pension Triple Lock and using savings to help young families.
Edward Davies, Research Director at the Centre for Social Justice, said:
This is a worrying milestone, reflecting decades of failure to adequately support family life in our country.
‘For as long as family continues to be the F-word of politics, the Government will not be in control of the seismic demographic shifts which are wreaking havoc on the public finances and depriving millions of their dreams of parenthood.
‘Passively allowing this trend to continue means children will inherit smaller schools, a later retirement and unfulfilled aspirations of parenthood. We need to prioritise marriage, help young men step up to the plate, and make it easier for couples who want children to afford to have them.
The full Baby Bust: Update report can be found here.
Methodology
CSJ analysis of Office for National Statistics projections show that combined deaths are expected to exceed combined live births in England and Wales from July 2026 onwards, with the 12 months to June 2026 being the last year in which births are slightly higher. While the start of each year in the data is 1st July, the precise moment at which deaths overtook births will be confirmed by future official data releases.
| 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | |
| Population at start | 61,807 | 62,021 | 62,146 |
| Births | 587 | 588 | 584 |
| Deaths | 557 | 585 | 588 |
Table 1: England and Wales Population, Births and Deaths Projections in 000s (to mid-year ending), CSJ analysis of ONS National Population Projections
Across Great Britain, the ONS projects that there will be around 450,000 more deaths than births over the ten years between mid-2024 and mid-2034.
The Department for Education projects that the number of pupils in state-funded nursery and primary schools in England will fall from 4.505 million in 2025 to 4.205 million in 2030, a fall of 300,000 pupils. The school equivalence figure is calculated by dividing the projected fall in nursery and primary pupils by roughly 264 pupils per average nursery or primary school. The staff-at-risk figure assumes seven per cent of nurseries and primary schools will close, and applies that proportion to the 2025/26 nursery and primary teaching and support staff FTE count.