The British Government is proposing reform to cohabitation rights. The changes would automatically give cohabitees in England and Wales who have continuously lived together for three years or who cohabit and share a child more rights to each other’s property and finances. The Government argues that the proposed changes will not have a significant impact on whether people choose to form relationships, cohabit, marry or have children. Are they right?
Finland says otherwise. In 2011 Finland enacted similar reforms – although narrower – to those being proposed in England and Wales. By examining countries with similar demographics to Finland and comparing their marriage, fertility and coupling-up rates, the CSJ has been able to project what Finland’s family and birth rates could have been if the reforms had not been introduced.
Using synthetic-control and difference-in-difference analysis, the CSJ estimates that women’s first marriage rate in Finland was 23 per cent lower within seven years of the reform than it would have been in its absence. The change was not followed by an increase in household stability amongst cohabiting couples, which also declined in the following years. The analysis estimates that the reform reduced marriage rates without achieving a requisite increase in household stability.
The results also indicate a significant association with lower fertility. The Finnish fertility rate also fell by 21 per cent by 2018. In Finland, 42 per cent of the decline in first births has been attributed to the decline in fertility in cohabiting couples.
All forms of couple relationships were affected by the reform. The proportion of two adult working age households in Finland fell by 16 per cent from the reform in 2011 to 2020. The divergence began to grow in 2014, consistent with an expected lag.
If England and Wales had introduced an equivalent reform to Finland in 2011, the analysis suggests there could have been 111,014 fewer marriages between 2012 and 2023, with 24,855 fewer marriages in 2023 alone. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in 2023 falls to 1.26, rather than 1.44, and in 2024 falls to 1.25 rather than 1.41.
Since 2021 this amounts to an estimated 75,000 fewer babies being born per year. Applying the analysis from 2012 takes the average reduction in births to 86,000 per year, following higher fertility patterns in the years preceding the pandemic.
The British public do not see these reforms as a priority: less than a quarter of the British public say changing the laws around cohabitation rights should be a priority for Government. The major concern voiced in the poll was that couples should not get marriage by auto-enrolment. There was an over five-to-one majority in favour of an opt-in model over the Government’s proposed opt-out model. The poll also flagged that, as in Finland, there is the risk of unintended consequences. Over 4 in 10 of the public are concerned that an active opt-out process could cause issues in otherwise happy relationships compared to 14.3 per cent who disagree. A large concern was around property rights and financial claims with a net agreement of 44 points that living with a partner should not, by itself, give partners a legal claim on someone’s savings, property or pension, with strong consistency across voters intending to vote for all five major parties.
Finland offers a clear warning. Reforms designed to narrow the legal distinction between marriage and cohabitation were followed by substantial falls in marriage and fertility, without evidence of offsetting gains in family stability. The proposals for England and Wales go further than the Finnish model. At a time when birth rates are already at historic lows and population ageing is placing growing pressure on public finances, policymakers cannot assume these reforms will be behaviourally neutral. The potential costs are too great, and the evidence too significant, to ignore.
